The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the "best" forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a...

This paper proposes a new semi-nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation method for estimating production functions. The method extends the literature on structural estimation of production functions, started by the seminal work of Olley and Pakes (1996), by relaxing the scalar-unobservable...

In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...

Many important economic problems require measures of physical and R&D capital. Except for some recent studies, there have been relatively few contributions in the literature that provide econometric estimates for the depreciation rates of physical and R&D capital. One reason for the relative...

In this contribution a nonparametric estimator for the hazard function will be presented for time-discrete survival analysis. The estimator is derived from a likelihood function based upon time-discrete counting processes. With martingale techniques asymptotic properties of the estimator of the...

Reliable estimates of variances and covariances are crucial for portfolio management and risk controlling. This paper investigates alternative methods to estimate time varying variance-covariance matrices: ordinary estimates and exponentially weighted moving averages in comparison to Markov...

Nichtparametrische Verfahren zur Dichte- und Regressionsschätzung setzen die Wahl eines Glättungsparameters voraus. Ein oft verwendetes Verfahren zu dessen Bestimmung ist die Kreuzvalidierung. Die Übertragung dieser Methode auf die Quantiisregression ist Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit. Es...

The focus of this article is the application of the grouped Cox model to the investigation of influence factors of the inclination of guest workers in the Federal Republic of Germany to remigrate. The model on which this is based takes into consideration both the appearance of censored...

In diesem Beitrag werden nichtparametrisclie Schätzer für die Hazardrate zur Analyse des Rückkehrverhaltens von Gastarbeitern in der Bundesrepublik vorgestellt. Als Datengrundlage dient das jährlich erhobene Sozio-ökonomische Panel, DIW, aus dem die Informationen für griechische,...