The literature on excess return prediction has considered a wide array of estimation schemes, among them unrestricted and restricted regression coefficients. We consider bootstrap aggregation (bagging) to smooth parameter restrictions. Two types of restrictions are considered: positivity of the...

Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar a descoberta de preços no mercado cambial brasileiro e indicar qual dos mercados (à vista ou futuro) se ajusta mais rapidamente à chegada de novas informações. Utilizando-se dados em alta frequência entre janeiro de 2008 e junho de 2013, estimaram-se...

We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as structural breaks and thresholds, in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models and apply our modeling framework to series of daily realized volatility. Asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum...

The goal of this paper is to test for and model nonlinearities in several monthly exchange rates time series. We apply two different nonlinear alternatives, namely: the artificial neural network time series model estimated with Bayesian regularization and a flexible smooth transition...

The goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a...

Nonlinear time series models, especially those with regime-switching and GARCH errors, have become increasingly popular in the economics and finance literature. However, much of the research has concentrated on the empirical applications of various models, with little theoretical or statistical...

In a context in which the framework of agricultural policy and business is changing radically the objective of the government and farmers should be to support the development of systems that look likely to be winners in the future. As a result this paper uses a Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) to...

The use of formal models such as Role Activity Diagrams (RADs) for analysing a process often hide what really happens during that process. In this paper, we build on previous research on informal aspects of the prototyping process and look at the key concerns that prototypers had during the...

We show that the asymptotic distribution of the ordinary least squares estimator in a cointegration regression may be bimodal. A simple case arises when the intercept is erroneously omitted from the estimated model or in nonlinear-in-variables models with endogenous regressors. In the latter...