This study analyzes data on cigarette purchasing using an extensive panel dataset. Major findings are: (1) cigarette purchasing in this market exhibits a reverse-J, or NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution)-like shape: many infrequent buyers and fewer frequent buyers; (2) Cigarette brands do...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We...