This paper analyzes the accuracy of budget forecasts in Turkey. Data is based on 23 years' forecasted and materialized general budget revenues and outlays, from 1981 to 2003. One sample statistics, tabulated, and one sample t tests are applied to find out the accuracy of forecasting and the...

Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we...

Development of Russian and world economies in Q2 2020 demonstrates that despite economic collapse countries are adapting to the current situation and in case there is no second wave of pandemic the crisis will take a V-type form. In particular, the oil price is unlikely to drop below $35 per...

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary...

We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting...

Budget credibility, or the ability of governments to accurately forecast macro-fiscal variables, is crucial for effective public finance management. Fiscal marksmanship analysis captures the extent of errors in the budgetary forecasting. The fiscal rules can determine fiscal marksmanship, as...