In this paper we propose a test for a set of linear restrictions in a Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) model. This test is based on the autoregressive metric, a notion of distance between two univariate ARMA models, <em>M₀</em> and <em>M₁</em>, introduced by Piccolo in 1990. In particular, we show...

The transition density of a diffusion process does not admit an explicit expression in general, which prevents the full maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on discretely observed sample paths. Aït-Sahalia [J. Finance 54 (1999) 1361–1395; Econometrica 70 (2002) 223–262] proposed asymptotic...

We consider testing regression coefficients in high dimensional generalized linear models. By modifying a test statistic proposed by Goeman et al. (2011) for large but fixed dimensional settings, we propose a new test which is applicable for diverging dimension and is robust for a wide range of...

The importance of studying demand for bank loan by private business sector stems from the fact the money supply is ‘credit-driven’ and demand-determined and at the rate of interest determined by the central bank the money supply function is horizontal as illustrated by Moore and Threadgold...

This paper considers the problem of parameter estimation in a general class of semiparametric models when observations are subject to missingness at random. The semiparametric models allow for estimating functions that are non-smooth with respect to the parameter. We propose a nonparametric...

The conventional Wilcoxon/Mann-Whitney test can be invalid for comparing treatment effects in the presence of missing values or in observational studies. This is because the missingness of the outcomes or the participation in the treatments may depend on certain pre-treatment variables. We...

Sudan is one of the countries which economy depends on rain fed agriculture and also facing recurring cycles of natural drought. For many decades, recurrent drought, with intermittent severe droughts, had become normal phenomenon in Sudan. This paper presents linear stochastic models known as...

As a basis for information recovery in open dynamic microeconomic systems, we emphasize the connection between adaptive intelligent behavior, causal entropy maximization and self-organized equilibrium seeking behavior. This entropy-based causal adaptive behavior framework permits the use of...

Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance. The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available, especially for Lévy-driven processes. We propose an empirical likelihood...

This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...