The “market” is too complex to model deterministically, and as a result it is impossible to deterministically and accurately price assets within the market. Nevertheless, the vast majority of financial asset pricing models, such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), are employed as...

This paper explores archival material concerning the reception of Leonard J. Savage's foundational work of subjective-Bayesian decision-making. The focus is on the criticism raised in the early 1960s by Daniel Ellsberg, William Fellner and Cedric Smith, who were supporters of the newly developed...

This note argues that a representation of the epistemic state of the individual through a non-additive measure provides a novel account of Keynes's view of probability theory proposed in his Treatise on Probability. The paper shows, first, that Keynes's quot;non-numerical probabilitiesquot; can...

The idea that consumers are rational decision makers, who carefully consider options when making a decision about a certain phenomenon, will soon phase out! Believe it or not. In a bid to better understand the consumer, a myriad of economists still waste their precious time on “not-so-deep”...

This is the result of an interview conducted by email exchange during the period from July 2017 to February 2018, with minor adjustments later in 2018. Apart from some personal history, topics discussed include: (i) social choice, especially with interpersonal comparisons of utility; (ii)...

This paper is the penultimate version of the Prologue to my book Measuring Utility. From the Marginal Revolution to Behavioral Economics, published in 2018 by Oxford University Press in the series Oxford Studies in the History of Economics

The paper reconstructs the history of the experimental attempts to measure the cardinal utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by expected utility theory (EUT). It is shown that this history displays a definite trajectory: from the confidence in EUT and the...

This paper documents an exchange between Leonard Savage, founder of the subjective probability approach to decision-making, and Karl Popper, advocate of the so-called propensity approach to probability, of which there is no knowledge in the literature on probability theory. Early in 1958, just...

Nash is famous for many inventions, but it is less known that he, simultaneously with Marschak, also was the first to axiomatize expected utility for risk. In particular, these authors were the first to state the independence condition, a condition that should have been but was not stated by von...

Based on the work of Herbert A. Simon, the author critically reflects on the past and current state of crucial behavioural assumptions such as rational expectations and bounded rationality. Simon recognized that the core of every organization is the pattern underlying the division of tasks and...