proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …

autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical component that is hardly revised with new incoming data due to the … medium length cycles. Further, as the estimated trend contains high frequency noise, it can hardly be interpreted as … potential GDP. A simple modification based on the mean of 4 to 12 quarter ahead forecast errors shares the favorable real …