The impact of the cognitive biases of overconfidence, underconfidence and anchoring on the distribution of errors of forecasting models is analyzed using an analytical framework based on a flexible two-piece generalized distribution. The total forecasting bias, measured by the expected value of...

Using a flexible statistical framework that accounts for time-varying skewness and leptokurtosis, we examine the stochastic behavior of Bitcoin in comparison to five major currencies. The empirical findings reveal that the distribution of all series is leptokurtic. Once the effect of...

The accuracy of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) monthly estimates of the nation’s quarterly nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates are examined using a novel analytical framework based on the flexible two-piece generalized distribution. An analysis of the...