Consistent with the Minsky hypothesis and the “volatility paradox” (Brunnermeier and Sannikov, 2014), recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises tend to follow prolonged periods of financial stability and investor optimism. But does financial stability/tranquility always call...

Consistent with the Minsky hypothesis and the 'volatility paradox' (Brunnermeier and Sannikov, 2014), recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises tend to follow prolonged periods of financial stability and investor optimism. But does financial tranquility always call for more...

In a regime change game, agents sequentially decide whether to attack or not, without observing the past actions by others. To dissuade them from attacking, a principal adopts a dynamic information disclosure policy - repeated viability tests. A viability test publicly discloses whether the...

It is well-established that in bargaining under complete information, two agents reach an agreement immediately. I assume that nature selects a state that favors one or the other, and the agents may not know the state with probability ε, inducing higher- order uncertainty. A unique equilibrium...

When agents anticipate that a future shock could start a crisis, they may take preemptive actions that contribute to the crisis. This can create panic — a crisis even when the fundamental does not warrant it. We construct an optimal dynamic information disclosure policy called “timely...