We estimate effects relevant to a possible shift in U.S. trade policy on electric loads in Mexico. We find exports to be a highly significant predictor of energy loads and a significant predictor of peak loads in models that do and do not include GDP and a trend toward greater efficiency in the...

If financial markets manage risk to personal consumption efficiently, it should be the case that energy bills that vary directly with aggregate personal consumption can be made both lower and less volatile at cost, since doing so is effectively making payments when aggregate consumption is high,...

I examine evidence for a recent acceleration in the impact of technological change in the extraction of oil and natural gas on OPEC, associated with hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. I estimate world demand for and non OPEC supply of crude oil simultaneously, representing...

I estimate the social discount rate allowing returns on investment to differ from returns on wealth. Historical returns on wealth and investment in the United States imply estimates of pure time preference and risk aversion, which I use to project returns going forward. I generalize the Ramsey...

I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks...

I estimate world demand for crude petroleum, the effect of petroleum prices on world income, and non OPEC supply of crude petroleum using seasonally adjusted data and a number of instruments. Structural breaks help explain stationarity in demand, and cointegration of variables suggests...

I model a central city where citizens differ by income, and housing confers benefits on neighbors. Zoning separates citizens into neighborhoods by income. This maximizes a benefit-cost welfare criterion and facilitates redistributing gains to a majoritarian governing coalition of citizens, which...