This paper derives exact finite sample distributions of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. The distributions are derived for the leading case where the variables in the system are independent random walks. But important aspects of the...

Chan and Tran give the limit theory for the least squares coefficient in a random walk with the iid errors that are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. This note discusses their results and provides generalizations to the case of I(q) processes with weakly dependent errors whose...

In this paper we present a rather general phenomenological theory of tick-by-tick dynamics in financial markets. Many well-known aspects, such as the Lévy scaling form, follow as particular cases of the theory. The theory fully takes into account the non-Markovian and non-local character of...

We analyze the time series of overnight returns for the bund and btp futures exchanged at liffe (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one–dimensional symbolic–dynamics random walk: The “bond walk”. During the considered period (October 1991—January 1994) the...

Exact solutions are rare for non-Markovian random walk models even in 1D, and much more so in 2D. Here we propose a 2D genuinely non-Markovian random walk model with a very rich phase diagram, such that the motion in each dimension can belong to one of 3 categories: (i) subdiffusive, (ii)...

Detection of community is a crucial step to understand the structure and dynamics of complex networks. Most of conventional community detection methods focus on optimizing a certain objective function or on clustering nodes based on their similarities, which leads to a phenomenon that they have...

We give a complete classification of scaling limits of randomly trapped random walks and associated clock processes on Zd, d≥2. Namely, under the hypothesis that the discrete skeleton of the randomly trapped random walk has a slowly varying return probability, we show that the scaling limit of...

The reality of contemporary developments in the capital markets indicates that they do not lend themselves to the deductive theory based on simplified rationality of the physical world. The behaviour of the markets cannot be derived from rather bare postulates of the so called “random walk”...

We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers...

To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff...