This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and … by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during … indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for …

In recent years, the decline in inflation in Angola has stalled and further steps may be needed to attain the … digit inflation rate. A Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which analyzes the factors that affect the inflationary process … in Angola, suggests that the inflation path has been largely affected by exchange rate movements. This implies that …

This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is … based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence …. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements …

relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes … flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization …, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of …

This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated … with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of … of inflation; provides a synthesis of policy responses taken against the background of the conflicting objectives and …

Containing inflation has turned out to be one of the most challenging aspects of economic management in Iraq. This … paper posits that conventional as well as unconventional factors explain inflation dynamics in the recent past. We build a … fuel shortages, with implications for fuel and non-fuel inflation. A number of step-wise adjustments of administered prices …

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well …, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by … about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at …

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia … variables are included. The pattern of inflation is explained mainly by past inflation, the strength of the US dollar, US … inflation, and—depending on the subset of countries analyzed—monetary and exchange rate policies and nonfuel commodity prices …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …