In this article we present both a theoretical framework and a solved example for pricing an European gas storage facility and computing the optimal strategy for its operation. As a representative price index we choose the Dutch TTF day-ahead gas price. We present statistical evidence that the...

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) processes have become very popular as models for financial return data because they are able to capture volatility clustering as well as leptokurtic unconditional distributions which result from the assumption of conditionally...

This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....

There appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior. In this...

This paper investigates the stability of the German money supply focusing on the period 1991 - 1998. It is shown that the standard ARIMA-Transfer model approach in the literature needs to be augmented by a cointegration term to adequately model the dynamics of money supply in Germany. Additional...

Mit den diesjährigen Trägern des Nobelpreises für Wirtschaft, Robert. F. Engle und Clive W.J. Granger, werden zwei Vertreter der Zeitreihenökonometrie geehrt. Wie hat sich durch ihr Werk die statistische Analyse ökonomischer Zeitreihen verändert? Wie wird heute Volatilität auf...

Existing multivariate GARCH models either impose strong restrictions on the parameters or do not guarantee a well-defined (positive definite) covariance matrix. We focus on the multivariate GARCH model of Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BE=) and show that the covariance and correlation is not...

Starting with the liberalization of electricity trading, this market grew rapidly over the last decade. However, while spot and future markets are rather liquid nowadays, option trading is still limited. One of the potential reasons for this is that the spot price process of electricity is still...

We generalize the score test for time-varying copula parameters proposed by [Abegaz & Naik-Nimbalkar, 2008] to a setting where more than one-parametric copulas can be tested for time variation in at least one parameter. In a next step we model the daily log returns of the Commerzbank stock using...

The FI-A-PARCH process has been developed by Tse (1998) to model essential characteristics of financial market returns. However, due to the nonstationarity described by Níguez (2002) the process exhibits infinite conditional second moments and no statements about the autocovariance function can...