Preliminary data on Russia's economic results of 2015, as well as the current trends in the global energy market, give grounds for revising down possible scenarios for Russia's economy in 2016-2017. For instance, a scenario of yearly average oil prices staying at $35 a barrel in 2016 is now the...

According to our forecast, the period 2017–2018 will see renewed growth of practically every main socioeconomic activity index, even under the scenario geared to a persistently unfavorable external situation. The economy will be able to show only weak growth at a rate of 2% в per annum....

Russian Abstract: Майская экономическая статистика демонстрирует продолжение и развитие негативных тенденций, обозначившихся еще в апреле: несмотря на...

Russian Abstract: В настоящий момент экономика демонстрирует признаки, скорее, не кризиса, а депрессии. С одной стороны, статистика промышленности на уровне...

Russian Abstract: Показатели развития экономики РФ в 1 полугодии 2015 г. и первые данные о динамике основных макроэкономических показателей в июле-августе 2015-го...

The lower scale of GDP decline in 2015–2016 that resulted from the revision, by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), of its previously released data produced a ‘base effect' which, in its turn, scaled down the existing forecasts for 2017–2018: the reported recovery...

In Q 3-4 2016, Russia's economy entered the phase of cyclical growth from the lowest point of the business cycle, its typical feature being the unstable movement patterns of the main socioeconomic development indicators. Inflation hit its historic low. The ruble's strengthening boosted the...

Developments that unfolded in Q1 2016, particularly the decline of crude oil prices down to a 12-year low, may result in worse-than-expected outcomes at 2016 year-end. Unlike the forecast that we made in January, we have revised down our 2016 baseline scenario for GDP growth rates from -1.4% to...

The results of H1 2017 on the one hand support the previous assumptions that the Russian economy is entering a growth phase, and on the other hand provide evidence of elevated uncertainty regarding the terms and prospects of economic development in the future. We expect that key macroeconomic...

Our macroeconomic forecast of the most probable scenarios for 2016–2018 indicates that the Russian economy will pass through the lowest point of the current crisis in mid-2016, and that thereafter, from H2 2016 onwards, it will start displaying signs of stabilization and even recovery. In...