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Predicting recessions with leading indicators : model averaging and selection over the business cycle

Berge, Travis J. - In: Journal of forecasting 34 (2015) 6, pp. 455-471

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343630

Predicting recessions with leading indicators : model averaging and selection over the business cycle

Berge, Travis J. - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009770764

Forecasting disconnected exchange rates

Berge, Travis J. - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009412986

Forecasting disconnected exchange rates

Berge, Travis J. - In: Journal of applied econometrics 29 (2014) 5, pp. 713-735

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414857

Time-varying uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's output gap estimate

Berge, Travis J. - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388292

Understanding survey-based inflation expectations

Berge, Travis J. - In: International journal of forecasting 34 (2018) 4, pp. 788-801

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012031107

Understanding survey based inflation expectations

Berge, Travis J. - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709248

Time-varying uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's output gap estimate

Berge, Travis J. - In: The review of economics and statistics 105 (2023) 5, pp. 1191-1206

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014384118

A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850 - 2011

Berge, Travis J.; Jordà, Òscar - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 4 (2013) 1, pp. 1-34

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317138

The classification of economic activity

Berge, Travis J.; Jordà, Oscar - 2009

The Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. This paper investigates three central aspects about this chronology: (1) How skillful is the BCDC in classifying economic activity into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282083