Using a comprehensive data set of earthquakes in China, we show that investors perceive increased credit risk in quasi-municipal bonds exposed to devastating earthquakes, leading to a significant positive risk premium. Our study identifies that this bias is temporary and decreases as investors...

The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery...

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998-2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related...

This study introduces and evaluates a bottom-up methodology for projecting the Gross Value-Added of the agricultural sector (agricultural GDP). This approach integrates econometric methods with early crop forecasts, which are released one year ahead of annual production figures by specialized...

We compile a novel high-frequency, detailed geographic dataset on mass layoffs from U.S. state labor departments. Using recent advances in difference-in-difference estimation with staggered treatment, we find that locally-mandated stay-at-home orders issued March 16–22, 2020 triggered mass...

We show that occupation mobility creates the illusion of cyclical hiring wages. Using administrative data, we find that wages of new hires who remain in the same occupation are no more cyclical than those of existing workers, whereas wages of occupation switchers are highly cyclical. We uncover...

In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft lässt die Rezession hinter sich. Ausweislich der Frühindikatoren wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach dem Anstieg im ersten Quartal weiter aufwärtsgerichtet bleiben. Im Verlauf des Jahres werden die steigenden real verfügbaren Einkommen und das anziehende...

Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have...

This study investigates the role of media tone on inflation expectations. Examining the relationships between news and the inflation expectations of various U.S demographic groupings, we find that traditional news influences older cohorts, while social media news align more closely with the...