During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of demographic variables in economic growth regressions. We estimate a new model of the effects of age structure change on economic growth. We use the new model and recent probabilistic demographic projections...

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two...

We have combined a simple demographic model and the 58 sector econometric simulation and forecasting model INFORGE (Interindustry Forecasting Germany) which has been successfully used in different areas, e.g. modelling the effects of CO2 taxes and the liberalisation of the IT market on the...

This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefl y cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of...