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An effective approach for forecasting return volatility via threshold nonlinear heteroskedastic models of the daily … heteroskedasticity, which are commonly observed in financial markets. The focus is on parameter estimation, inference and volatility … supported by the data in terms of finding significant threshold nonlinearity, diagnostic checking and volatility forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014207634
structure with GARCH-type dynamics, has been shown to offer a plausible decomposition of the contributions to volatility, as … unexpected return shocks on future volatility is obtained. An empirical out-of-sample study confirms the usefulness of the new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721353
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003918204
volatility dynamics modeled as a HAR is augmented by a term involving quarticity in order to correct measurement errors in … accounts for a faster mean reversion when volatility is high. We argue that heteroskedasticity (volatility of volatility) and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947755
Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064150
This paper proposes a parsimonious threshold stochastic volatility (SV) model for financial asset returns. Instead of … imposing a threshold value on the dynamics of the latent volatility process of the SV model, we assume that the innovation of … time-varying volatility of returns, but also can accommodate the asymmetric shape of conditional distribution of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084224
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners have advocated wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value- at-Risk (VaR) models in order to minimize risk failures. Despite its limitations, the Bayesian methodology has significant advantages. Just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014263882
In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031477
Stand-alone marketing models are well-suited to deal with different behavioral features such as variation in transaction frequency (customer heterogeneity with latent classes), recency and attrition (“buy ‘till you die” models), and more general changes in customer transaction rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009356633
. Stochastic volatility models remain outside this review. -- ARCH ; conditional heteroskedasticity ; GARCH; nonlinear GARCH …; volatility modelling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394988