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-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …
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world trade volume to plummet by a staggering 13 percent to 32 percent in 2020. This translates to large-scale losses in … severity of the global recession, and the ability of world leaders to come up with a coordinated policy response. This paper …
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Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from China during 2020. We find that a country's own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed...
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This paper studies the spread of the Black Death as a proxy for the flow of medieval trade between 1346 and 1351. The Black Death struck most areas of Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Based on a modified version of the gravity model, we estimate the speed (in kilometers per day) of...
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The COVID-19 outbreak in the global scale has raised the concern about severe economic effects caused by the pandemic disease. Extant literature on global pandemic mainly focuses on the direct and indirect economic costs of the disease. However, the global outbreak of public health emergencies...
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The COVID-19 pandemic is a low-probability, high-impact systemic risk that has wreaked havoc on international trade and reshaped globalization patterns. The study explored country-level trade resilience during the first wave of the pandemic using the idea of supply chain resilience, which...
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