inflation in Europe will rise significantly and that the economy will suffers from a loss of purchasing power. The pressure on …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a …

-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and … distribution. Overall, the quantile regression approach describes the distribution of inflation better than a benchmark univariate … trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility, which is known to perform very well in forecasting inflation. In an out …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

This chapter aims at assessing the long-run determinants and the short-run dynamics of inflation in each country … cointegrating VAR approach, which allows for a structural long-run analysis of inflation determinants along with an accurate … inflation differ in the countries belonging to the Euro Area, but also that cost-push factors have a considerable role in …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …