We employ a Levy process subject only to negative jumps to describe the motion of asset values. This specification permits fast computation of first passage probabilities. As a result we are able to calibrate all CDS curves for the 125 ITRAXX underliers weekly and develop a time series for the...

Market efficiency is measured by arbitrage proximity. The magnitude of probability distortion necessary to remove drift calibrates the efficiency. Simulations of bilateral gamma models estimated on a year's past returns yield empirical acceptability indices for each day for each asset. The...

Prudent upper and lower valuations from the literature on arbitrage free two price economies provide risk characteristics driving required returns. The risk characteristics assess the risk of price fluctuations. The difference between the upper and lower prudent valuations can be viewed as a...

Lower and upper prudent valuations in two price economies obtained on sufficiently distorting physical probabilities for returns to horizons matching option maturities straddle the market prices of options. Market prices are then modeled as geometric averages of the extremal valuations. Upper...

In this paper, we investigate the behavior of the bitcoin (BTC) price through the vanilla options available on the market. We calibrate a series of Markov models on the option surface. In particular, we consider the Black-Scholes model, Laplace model, five Variance Gamma related models and the...

Asset returns are modeled by bilateral gamma processes with zero covariations. Covariances are then observed to be consequences of randomness in variations. Support vector machine regressions on prices are employed to model the implied randomness. The contributions of support vector machine...

Complex insurance risks typically have multiple exposures. Options on multiple underliers with a short maturity are employed to hedge this exposure. Hedges are illustrated for GMWBVA accounts invested in the nine sector ETF's of the US economy. The underliers are simulated risk neutrally by...

The paper provides a new hedging methodology permitting systematic hedging choices with wide applications. Dynamic concave bid price, and convex ask price functionals from the recent literature are employed to construct new hedging strategies termed dynamic conic hedging. The primary focus of...

In this paper, we show how we can deploy machine learning techniques in the context of traditional quant problems. We illustrate that for many classical problems, we can arrive to speed-ups of several orders of magnitude by deploying machine learning techniques based on Gaussian process...

Return distributions in the class of pure jump limit laws are observed to reflect numerous asymmetries between the upward and downward motions of asset prices. The return distributions are modeled by self decomposable parametric laws with all parameters continuously responding to each other....