Based on a set of carefully designed Monte Carlo exercises, this paper documents the behavior and performance of several newly developed advanced forecast combination algorithms in unstable environments, where performance of candidate forecasts are cross-sectionally heterogeneous and dynamically...

We study the information content of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment as well as its five components. Using household data from the Surveys of Consumers, we identify the main determinants of these indicators and document their varying role over the business cycle. Our...

We reformulate the Nordhaus test as a friction model where the large number of zero revisions are treated as censored, i.e., unknown values inside a small region of "imperceptibility" Using Blue Chip individual forecasts of U.S. real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we...

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...

We propose a generalized ordered response model that nests the popular Carlson-Parkin (CP) method to quantify household in flation expectations while explicitly control for cross-sectional heterogeneity in the threshold parameters and the variance. By matching qualitative and quantitative data...

The main focus of this paper is to explore the potential for improving econometric specification in modeling hedge fund returns. Specifically, we examine the effects of (1) correcting for selectivity bias due to sample attrition; (2) allowing for nonlinearity; and (3) controlling for...

This paper considers the issue of predicting cyclical turning points using real-time diffusion indexes constructed using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct diffusion indexes at the monthly frequency, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and...

This paper provides a critical review of the popular Carlson-Parkin (CP) quantification method using household-level data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. We find strong evidence against the threshold constancy, symmetry, homogeneity, and the overall unbiasedness...