In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat...

In this Hot New Research Column in Foresight, Paul reports on three new approaches to the difficult challenge of supermarket forecasting. James Taylor has investigated a robust approach to this challenge; he calls it exponentially weighted quantile regression (EWQR). Aburto and Weber propose...

In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this report, they document the extent of the problem within four large companies, explore the...

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized forecasting system to produce initial forecasts and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of these...