Machine learning is a growing method for causal inference. In machine learning settings, prediction errors are a commonly overlooked problem that can bias results and lead to arbitrarily incorrect parameter estimates. We consider a two-stage model where (1) machine learning is used to predict...

This paper examines the impact of racial minority representation on advertising effectiveness. We do this by first assembling data on 10 million mortgage refinance loans, along with data on TV advertisements for mortgage refinance. We construct a measure of minority representation from video ads...

Abstract In airline networks, a link creates profits for its carrier in conjunction with the carrier's other links. In other words, a link has “network” value. One prominent mechanism behind this network value is a hubbing effect: adding one single link to a hub creates many connecting...

Marketing and distribution expenses are responsible for about a third of the cost of active management in the mutual fund industry. We develop and estimate a structural model of mutual fund marketing with learning about unobserved skill and costly investor search. Our estimates suggest that...

Motivated by the growing practice of using social network data in credit scoring, this study analyzes the impact of using network based measures on customer score accuracy and on tie formation among customers. We develop a series of models to compare the accuracy of customer scores obtained with...

This paper aims to understand the effects of online communities on the network structure and their marketing implications. To account for the fact that communities are not formed exogenously, we model and estimate how they co-evolve with the friendship network. We control for unobserved...

Marketing and distribution expenses are responsible for about a third of the cost of active management in the mutual fund industry. We develop and estimate a structural model of mutual fund marketing with learning about unobserved skill and costly investor search. Our estimates suggest that...

A fundamental tension exists in creativity between novelty and similarity. This paper exploits this tension to help creators craft successful projects in crowdfunding. To do so, we apply the concept of combinatorial creativity, analyzing each new project in connection to prior similar projects....

Does the observed relationship between mutual fund flows and recent performance represent irrational “return chasing” or rational learning about unobserved fund manager skill in the presence of decreasing returns to scale? We estimate a structural model of investor beliefs implicit in the...

While crowdfunding has grown enormously, creating successful projects remains a major challenge. Few studies have shown how to improve a project proposal when designing a project. One potential yet unexplored approach is to apply the concept of combinatorial creativity, analyzing a new project...