This paper highlights that world economic growth is estimated to have declined from 31⁄4 percent in 1989 to 2 percent in 1990, reflecting a slowdown in the industrial countries and a fall in economic activity in developing countries of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western...

This paper describes the world economy in 1991 and balanced growth in industrial countries. The year 1985 has been somewhat disappointing from the viewpoint of economic growth. Expansion fell back by more than expected in the industrial world, and world trade increased only modestly....

This paper highlights that after several years of rapid expansion that brought many countries to historically high levels of resource utilization, the growth of the world economy is projected to slow to about 2 percent in 1990 from 3 percent in 1989. The global slowdown would reflect a...

A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in present-day economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies-the signals approach and the multivariate probability model-and their application to...

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of ""shocks,"" and (iv) the potential...

Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect the way an economy''s adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the randomness of natural shocks, this paper assesses empirically the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. The evidence supports key themes in this literature, and...

The paper provides a systematic analysis of bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across countries, using newly-released data on international equity holdings at the end of 2001. It develops a model that links bilateral equity holdings to bilateral trade in goods...

This paper examines how emerging bond markets react to macroeconomic announcements. Global bond spreads respond to rating actions and changes in global interest rates rather than domestic data and policy announcements. All announcements affect market volatility. Data and policy announcements...

This paper examines the (quasi-)fiscal impact of the (opportunity) cost of international reserves. It proposes a conceptual framework, with particular emphasis on two hitherto somewhat neglected aspects: a more appropriate measure of gross opportunity cost, and potential savings from lower...

There has been widespread adoption of new laws to support new public management. In many countries that have implemented comprehensive and deep reforms, new or amended laws have fundamentally changed the role of the state and the budget processes supporting it. Paradoxically, far-reaching...