Financial institutes have to be in a position to describe and to analyze the networks of obligors in their credit portfolios. If one obligor defaults who is numerously connected with other obligors in the portfolio there can be effects of credit contagion. We suggest a graph-based modeling of...

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms...

We revisit the comparison of mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and nested fixed point (NFXP) algorithms for estimating structural dynamic models by Su and Judd (SJ, 2012). They used an inefficient version of the nested fixed point algorithm that relies on successive...

Previous conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about the...

Prior to the financial crisis mortgage securitization models increased in sophistication as did products built to insure against losses. Layers of complexity formed upon a foundation that could not support it and as the foundation crumbled the housing market followed. That foundation was the...

In many cultures a major factor affecting a person's happiness is the difference between their income and that of their neighbors, independent of their own income. This effect is strongest when the income difference is negative (richer neighbor). In addition, across their lifetime, a person's...

Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques, based on machine learning, can readily be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily time-series. However, econometric studies have shown that...

We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting...

We examine the problem of approximating, in the Frobenius-norm sense, a positive, semidefinite symmetric matrix by a rank-one matrix, with an upper bound on the cardinality of its eigenvector. The problem arises in the decomposition of a covariance matrix into sparse factors, and has wide...

Previous conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about the...