This article examines the nature of the linkage between financial development and economic fluctuation in 22 OECD countries over the period from 1970 through 2000. Two econometric techniques are used: The first, a cross-sectional instrument variable estimator, deals, to some degree, with the...

Summary In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with...