who had 3 or more accidents during the previous year. In analyzing marketing research data an analyst may wish to predict … the number of future purchases to be made by those customers who made x purchases in the previous 3 months. The owner of a …

The function which managers most despise is the art of forecasting. By its very nature it concerns guessing the outcome … inherently within it events beyond the control of managers. Reviews forecasting and provides several recommendations on how one … could go about minimizing biases within the forecasting process.  …

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical … models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …

and prediction uncertainty with different probability structures. Several examples are presented utilizing this metric. We …

-to-use method for human reliability analysis. Calculation of human error probability (HEP) rates is especially straightforward …

Emergency managers have come to recognize that there is a quintessential style of emergency response procedure … belief that a formidable array of talent and resources will overcome any obstacle, intuitive managers periodically pause and …

This paper presents a methodology for forecasting seasonal streamflow and is an extension of a previously developed … is expressed as probability of exceedance of continuous streamflow amounts. An exceedance probability forecast is … this generic approach to making an exceedance probability forecast can be used on any predictors and predictands. …