A Delphi Study in Search of a New Consensus : Urban Policies and Informality in Latin America

This prospective analysis on the adaptation of urban policies to the dynamics of informality in Latin America seeks to identify common patterns, shared consensus, and divergences among various aspects related to informality and urban policies in Latin America in a post-pandemic context. They were obtained through consultations with experts and two rounds of questions using the Delphi methodology.According to the experts, urban informality will worsen. Supply-side issues, such as inadequate housing policies, are the main explanation for this pessimistic scenario. Experts agreed on the usefulness of some informality-prevention policies that focus on funding, such as financing urban infrastructure and housing, and using land-based instruments to help finance urban development. They also agreed that citizen demands will increase, which will help the development of preventive policies. Moreover, new pressure from environmental issues will also push in this direction. The panel considered the use of land management instruments to facilitate the development/supply of land for public purposes very relevant, along with enabling land value capture tools to finance urban infrastructure. It was probably the most agreed-on instrument to address urban informality. In addition, inclusive land management instruments, such as mandatory percentages for social housing, more flexible standards, and mobilizing land value to finance infrastructure, were also pointed to as being important. Every policy and instrument, the experts agreed, depends heavily on budgetary concerns and implementation issues