Convergence Towards Circularity : Analyzing European Waste Management Progress and Policy Implications for Achieving Circular Economy Goals

European policy to promote the transition to a circular economy calls for reducing landfilling to 10% and recycling at least 65% of municipal solid waste by 2035. Although convergence trends in waste management among Member States have been observed in recent decades, geographical differences remain, raising questions about the actual ability of some countries to meet these targets. Using data from 2011–2021, trends in recycling rates and municipal solid waste landfilling are used to create a circular economy index forecast, which is then compared to the pathways countries will need to take to meet these targets. A panel data analysis is employed to estimate the impact of the circular economy index on sustainability performance, innovation, commodity trade balance, and waste reduction. This paper offers policy implications for the design of industrial and environmental policies: speeding up permitting times for waste treatment facilities, providing more flexibility in state aid rules, empowering service users or waste generators, introducing tax credits, and utilizing ad hoc funds to support the recycling industry to promote convergence and achieve circular economy goals