Decision Support Model for Production Disturbance Estimation

A current modeling framework for disturbance in manufacturing systems (MS) is given by concepts like discrete-event systems, stochastic fluid models and infinitesimal disturbance analysis. The goal of modeling is to achieve control and structural and functional optimization of MS. Objective functions of these optimization models are focused on quantities which reflect the level of reliability, the level of manufactured products, the quality of products or the impact on the environment of MS with disturbances. These models do not allow a dynamic evaluation of consequences of the disturbances which appears in the operation of MS machines and also do not allow an evaluation of the evolution in time of disturbance consequence indicators. Disturbances in technological lines of MS represent local bottlenecks of production with severe economic consequences in what regards production time losses. Good estimation of disturbances dynamics can be very helpful to both technological line designers, who can optimize their projects and production managers who can minimize their losses. Our model allows a dynamic evaluation of consequences of some disturbance of machine operation in MS, using indicators based on time, energy and costs. A MATLAB software package was developed for tests.