"Farm Size, Productivity, and Speculative Motives in Agricultural Land: Why Japanese Farmers are So Small in Scale?" (in Japanese)

This paper examines the effect of speculative motives in agricultural land on farm size and labor productivity in Japan, by use of the prefecture- and size-level census panel data in the period from 1990 to 2005. The paper employs a discrete choice model to formulate the farm behavior in the choice of land size (including exit), and then simulates the model to assess the counterfactual situation in the absence of speculative motives. While it identifies the existence of strong increasing returns, the paper finds that speculative motives in agricultural land do account for why Japanese farm size is small in scale. Our simulation result reveals that in the absence of the speculations, farm size would have become larger by 30 percent and labor productivity increased by more than 20 percent.