FDI and Trade in Portugal: a gravity analysis

This study investigates the relation between the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the geographical pattern of trade flows in the Portuguese economy. The gravity model is applied to bilateral trade between Portugal and OECD countries plus Brazil from 1998 to 2000. The stock of inward FDI is positively related to trade suggesting the existence of complementary between the two. This effect is stronger on exports than on imports resulting in a positive impact on trade balance. It is also found that the stock of outward FDI has no significant relation either with Portuguese exports or imports. Finally, FDI helps to explain the above “normal” exports to the EU and the below “normal” imports from Candidate Countries.