Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has reversed. The level of informational inefficiency was pervasive during 1990-2009, although it shows signs of improvement after 2010.

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Year of publication:	2021
Authors:	Lahiri, Kajal ; Zhang, Junyan ; Zhao, Yongchen
Publisher:	Munich : Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Subject:	social security trust funds \| long-range solvency forecasts \| Nordhaus test \| forecast efficiency \| fixed-event forecast revisions

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Series:	CESifo Working Paper ; 9415
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	1779375360 [GVK] hdl:10419/248960 [Handle] RePec:ces:ceswps:_9415 [RePEc]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E66 - General Outlook and Conditions ; H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions ; H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799715