Prediction markets : theory and applications

xx, 264 p.

Routledge international studies in money and banking ; 66

Includes bibliographical references and index

Cover; Title; Copyright; Contents; Notes on contributors; 1. Introduction; 2. Modeling idea markets: Between beauty contests and prediction markets; 3. How prediction markets can save event studies; 4. Mechanisms for prediction markets; 5. Information markets for decision-making: Performance and feasibility; 6. Using prediction markets in new product development; 7. Prediction market accuracy for business forecasting; 8. Price biases and contract design: Lessons from Tradesports; 9. The predictive ability of financial markets

10. The ability of markets to predict conditional probabilities: Evidence from the US presidential campaign11. Prediction markets: A study on the Taiwan experience; 12. Uses of sports wagering-based prediction markets outside of the world of gambling; 13. Experimental prediction and pari-mutuel betting markets; 14. The economic analysis of sports betting by expert gamblers and insiders: A survey; 15. Who can beat the odds?: The case of football betting reviewed; 16. The prediction market for the Australian Football League; 17. Do experts know more than the crowd?: A case study; Index

Idea markets as an evaluation tool: between beauty contests and prediction markets / Marco Ottaviani -- How prediction markets can save event studies / Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz -- Mechanisms for prediction markets / Yiling Chen -- Information markets for decision making : performance and feasibility / Karen Croxson -- Using prediction markets in new product development / Bernd Skiera and Martin Spann -- Prediction market accuracy for business forecasting / Andreas Graefe -- Price biases and contract design : lessons from tradesports / Richard Borghesi -- The predictive ability of financial markets / Les Coleman -- Markets' ability to predict conditional probabilities : evidence from the us presidential campaign / Lionel Page -- Prediction markets : a study on the taiwan experience / Shu-Heng Chen et al -- Uses of sports wagering-based prediction markets outside of the world of gambling / Rodney J. Paul and Andrew P. Weinbach -- Experimental prediction and pari-mutuel betting markets / Charles Noussair -- The economic analysis of sports betting by expert gamblers and insiders : a survey / John Peirson -- The case of football betting reviewed/ johnnie johnson and a. oikonomodis -- The prediction market for the australian football league / Adi Schnytzer -- Do experts know more than the crowd : a case study / Michael Smith

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