Returning to Normalcy : The Perils of Restoration Politics
The general consensus of regime cycle theorists is that George W. Bush was a “regime manager” trying to advance the political project established by Reagan. Unlike his father, however, Bush came to power after an opposition interlude, placing him in the position of restoring the Reagan agenda. In Stephen Skowronek's taxonomy, the regime managers represent the largest and most diverse category in political time. This paper breaks down the regime manager category to a more detailed level, focusing particular attention on the “restoration” sub-category. I examine the leadership dilemmas facing “restoration presidents” – presidents from the dominant party who come to power immediately following opposition presidents. Historical examples of this include Jacksonian Democrats following the Whig presidencies (Polk and Pierce), Republicans following the two Cleveland administrations (Harrison and McKinley), Republicans after Wilson (Harding/Coolidge), Democrats after Eisenhower (Kennedy/Johnson), and, of course, George W. Bush following Clinton. The existence of common elements among this group of presidents has tremendous importance for understanding our own political era. If Bush represents a “restoration” of Reagan-era conservatism following the Clinton interregnum, the lessons learned from similarly-placed presidents are important to more properly evaluate Bush's leadership opportunities and constraints