Risk Management for Targeting Customs Controls in Developing Countries: A Risky Venture for Revenue Performance?

Customs authorities in developing countries are often reluctant to forgo systematic inspections for fear of risking revenue loss. Such physical inspections, however, impede rather than facilitate trade. Control selectivity is therefore a key issue in customs administration reform. This paper shows how a sophisticated risk management method can facilitate trade by automatically and rationally selecting transactions, with the end result of actually enhancing revenue performance.