Spillovers from the Rest of the World into Sub-Saharan African Countries

This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Fund, International Monetary
Publisher:	Washington : International Monetary Fund
Subject:	Spillover-Effekt \| Spillover effect \| Zentralafrika \| Central Africa \| Subsahara-Afrika \| Sub-Saharan Africa

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (22 p)
Series:	IMF Working Papers IMF working paper ; WP/09/155
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth 6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth 11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008VI. Conclusions; Box; References
ISBN:	978-1-4518-7302-3 ; 978-1-4519-1730-7 ; 978-1-4518-7302-3
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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