Surendettement et effet d'éviction : le cas de la Turquie

The effect of debt on private investment is theoretically undetermined. Indeed, according to the theory, the relation between debt and private investment can either be negative (debt overhang) or positive (accelerator effect on economic growth, hence on private investment). Our study consists in testing this relationship in the case of Turkey over the 1963-2000 period. We have estimated the relation on two periods : 1963-98 and 1988-2000, given the development of a domestic financial market which gave birth to a new type of indebtedness : the internal public debt. These estimations reveal two distinct effects: external debt has a positive effect on private investment in both periods, whereas internal debt has a negative one. A debt overhang exists only in the second period.