The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
Lin Ma
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality. The model is calibrated to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The figure stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries, lockdowns can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones and never produce a net mortality increase
Year of publication: |
2021
|
---|---|
Authors: | Ma, Lin |
Other Persons: | de Walque, Damien (contributor) ; Do, Quy-Toan (contributor) ; Friedman, Jed (contributor) ; Levchenko, Andrei (contributor) ; Shapira, Gil (contributor) |
Publisher: |
2021: Washington, D.C : The World Bank |
Subject: | Coronavirus | Sterblichkeit | Mortality | Generationengerechtigkeit | Intergenerational equity | Lockdown | Lock-down | Wirkungsanalyse | Impact assessment | Epidemie | Epidemic |
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