Towards an econometric model of the Irish agricultural sector

In this paper the econometric model that has been developed under the auspices of the FAPRI-Ireland Partnership is presented. The FAPRI-Ireland Partnership is a joint venture between Teagasc (The Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority), the Irish universities, other interest groups in Ireland, and the Food and Agriculture Policy Institute (FAPRI) in the USA. The overall model is comprised of a set of individual econometrically estimated commodity models e.g. beef, dairy, sheep pigs and cereals, that are linked and solved simultaneously under different policy scenarios. Typically the impact of policy changes are projected over a ten-year horizon. The individual commodity models for Ireland are linked to the FAPRI EU and world models. This allows the simulation of policy changes at a national, EU and international level. The model has already been used to assess the likely impact of the changes to the CAP under Agenda 2000.