Choosing the right person for a given position is a highly complex task, J. Scott Armstrong yet experts believe that their experience allows them to do this well. Michael Lewis’s 2003 book Moneyball and the recent film based on the book provide a counterpoint, showing that the statistical...

The authors explain how, for the third time since its appearance in 2004, the PollyVote (www.polyvote.com) has demonstrated the value of combining forecasts to predict the two-party popular vote in U.S. presidential elections. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013

Three strategies for scientific research in management are examined: advocacy, induction, and multiple hypotheses. Advocacy of a single dominant hypothesis is efficient, but biased. Induction is not biased, but it is inefficient The multiple hypotheses strategy seems to be both efficient and...

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: H₁ Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H₂ The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H₃ Causal methods...

This brief commentary on the paper Designing Research with In-built Differentiated Replication expands on concerns about a lack of replication research by focusing on three key questions of continuous importance: Why should researchers conduct more replication research? Why do so few researchers...

This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed a rule base to make annual extrapolation forecasts for economic and demographic time series. The...

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share...