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We show that voters are fiscal conservatives, although in the long run only: while the average (over the mandate) level of debt has a negative impact on the probability of reelection, pre-election debt accumulation by incumbents increases their probability of reelection. As the negative impact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743689
Florian Dorn erstellte diesen Beitrag während seines Promotionsstudiums an der Universität München (LMU). Die Studie wurde im September 2020 abgeschlossen und von der Fakultät für Volkswirtschaftslehre als Dissertation angenommen. Die Dissertation trägt zur Empirie der Ökonomie des...
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Albania is among the most vulnerable countries to external energy shocks and climatic conditions, because of its high … dependency on hydropower for electricity. Given highly volatile international energy prices and expected global warming, it is … becoming increasingly important to manage the demand for electricity. However, the country has long been faced with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011394814
We use real-time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009629745
The purpose of this paper is to test for evidence of opportunistic `political business cycles' in a large sample of 18 OECD economies. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find very little evidence of pre-electoral effects of economic outcomes, in particular, on GDP growth and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666821
This paper explores different possible factors that have impacted business cycle synchronization across industrialized countries in the past quarter century. We employ a comprehensive model that includes as the main determinants of output co-movements not only trade and financial integration,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010662537
This paper examines the impact of political cycle on coalmine accidents in China. The political cycle is formed by the major local meetings of legislative bodies held every year in all provinces of China. This is because the government has a strong incentive to maintain social stability during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052843