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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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Leaning against the wind and crisis risk
Schularick, Moritz; Ter Steege, Lucas; Ward, Felix - 2020
Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial stability. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since the 19th...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012260596
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
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Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian model
Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2010
This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974674
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates
Dixon, Robert J.; Lim, Guay C.; Ours, Jan C. van - 2014
This paper studies collective contests with endogenous cost sharing, general effort costs and intra-group heterogeneity of prize-valuation. Our objective is to clarify the relationship between cost sharing, intra-group heterogeneity within the competing groups and the elasticity of the marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010361496
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Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016
We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319
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Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
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Real-time state-space method for computing smoothed estimates of future revisions of U.S. monthly chained CPI
Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016
Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474973