This paper describes a Bayesian model-discrimination procedure which determines for each consumer the stochastic model of brand choice which is best supported by his purchasing behavior. The Bayesian technique is illustrated by means of two Markov models and two Bernoulli models. We first...

This paper describes a simulation model of capital budgeting under uncertainty. It analyzes the effects of two types of uncertainty which influence the cash flows of the potential investment projects. Techniques of simulation and stochastic linear programming (using Weingartner's Basic Horizon...

Several versions of a mathematical programming model which determines attribute weights for each consumer are empirically eavluated using data on dry cereals and automobiles. The model is found to be a good predictor of consumer preferences, particularly for dry cereals. Managerial implications...

We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these...

The purpose of this paper is to derive a model of advertising effects on the firm's sales. A micromodel is postulated and aggregated across individuals and over time to produce a macromodel of the aggregate sales-advertising relationship for a single product. The micromodel postulated is very...