Showing 1 - 10 of 1,912
monopolistically competitive pricing, higher-order expectations are crucial for aggregate inflation dynamics, as argued by Phelps (1983 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470042
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. Under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458099
expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive … learning technology to form expectations and to update continuously their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the … between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468813
Many authors argue that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is important to the conduct and the effects of monetary policy. This paper tests for the existence of such asymmetric information by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473150
A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969-2005. Our model features a forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve and purposeful policymakers that can or cannot commit. Private sector learning about policymaker type...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477255
The optimal weights on indicators in models with partial information about the state of the economy and forward-looking variables are derived and interpreted, both for equilibria under discretion and under commitment. The private sector is assumed to have information about the state of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470469
A model of interest rate movements in response to new information on the money stock is developed.The model, which incorporates several earlier approaches as special cases, makes explicit the manner in which estimated interest rate responses to money surprises depend on the relative variances of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477495
New surveys provide a wealth of information on how economic agents form their expectations and how those expectations … shape their decisions. We review recent evidence on how changes in macroeconomic expectations, particularly inflation … expectations, affect households' and firms' actions. We show that the provision of information about inflation to households and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481103
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased … extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations … inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456571
. One major aim of this outreach is to guide inflation expectations; another is to ensure accountability and create trust … on the extent to which this new outreach does in fact affect inflation expectations and trust. On balance, we see some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334494