Buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models are built for companies operating in a non- contractual setting to predict customers’ transaction frequency, amount and timing as well as customer lifetime. These models tend to perform well, although they often predict unrealistically long lifetimes for a...

Today’s managers are very interested in predicting the future purchasing patterns of their customers, which can then serve as an input into “lifetime value” calculations. Among the models that provide such capabilities, the Pareto/NBD “counting your customers” framework proposed by...

Las implicaciones sobre la calidad del agua, medida ésta a través de los parámetros de carácter físico-químico empleados en la literatura específica, es uno de los principales problemas asociados a los trasvases de aguas superficiales. En este trabajo se realiza una valoración de la...

Customer retention and customer churn are key metrics of interest to marketers, but little attention has been placed on linking the different reasons for which customers churn to their value to a contractual service provider. In this paper, we put forth a hierarchical competing-risk model to...

As the 2000 election so vividly showed, it is Electoral College standings rather than national popular votes that determine who becomes President. But current pre-election polls focus almost exclusively on the popular vote. Here we present a method by which pollsters can achieve both point...

In this research we introduce a new class of multivariate probability models to the marketing literature. Known as "copula models," they have a number of attractive features. First, they permit the combination of any univariate marginal distributions that need not come from the same...

Estimating copula models using Bayesian methods presents some subtle challenges, ranging from specification of the prior to computational tractability. There is also some debate about what is the most appropriate copula to employ from those available. We address these issues here and conclude by...

For developing economies the development of enterprises should be a strategic goal, this way of thinking may become viable only as a result of a combination of judicious analysis based on specific local economic aspects and a set of actions to correct any slippage or amplify existing development...

Rating transition matrices for corporate bond issuers are often based on fitting a discrete time Markov chain model to homogeneous cohorts. Literature has documented that rating migration matrices can differ considerably depending on the characteristics of the issuers in the pool used for...

We study the sources of corporate default clustering in the United States. We reject the hypothesis that firms' default times are correlated only because their conditional default rates depend on observable and latent systematic factors. By contrast, we find strong evidence that contagion,...