We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a...

In this paper, we develop a general method for heterogeneous variable selection in Bayesian nonlinear panel data models. Heterogeneous variable selection refers to the possibility that subsets of units are unaffected by certain variables. It may be present in applications as diverse as health...

We develop a dynamic Bayesian model for clickthrough and conversion probabilities of paid search advertisements. These probabilities are subject to changes over time, due to e.g. changing consumer tastes or new product launches. Yet, there is little empirical research on these dynamics. Gaining...

Experts can rely on statistical model forecasts when creating their own forecasts. Usually it is not known what experts actually do. In this paper we focus on three questions, which we try to answer given the availability of expert forecasts and model forecasts. First, is the expert forecast...