We characterize transitions between stochastically stable states and relative ergodic probabilities in the theory of … the evolution of conventions. We give an application to the fall of hegemonies in the evolutionary theory of institutions … and conflict and illustrate the theory with the fall of the Qing Dynasty and rise of Communism in China. …

but additionally provide an estimate of the marginal likelihood. The tempered and time (TNT) algorithm, developed in the … optimization literature, numerous extensions are already available. The algorithm is notably appropriate for estimating Change …