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Predicting elections from the most important issue : a test of the take-the-best heuristic
Graefe, Andreas; Armstrong, Jon Scott - In: Journal of behavioral decision making 25 (2012) 1, pp. 41-48
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009487832
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Evaluating US presidential election forecasts and forecasting equations
Campbell, James E. - In: International journal of forecasting 24 (2008) 2, pp. 257-269
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003764129
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Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US presidential elections 2016 and 2020 : an optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model
Easaw, Joshy Z.; Fang, Yongmei; Heravi, Saeed M. - In: Journal of the Operational Research Society 74 (2023) 3, pp. 905-911
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014332233
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Embrace the differences : revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)
Graefe, Andreas - In: International journal of forecasting 39 (2023) 1, pp. 170-177
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014462773
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Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election
Cuzan, Alfred G. - 2016
The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama's reelection in … 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985379
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Forecasting the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections
Walker, David - In: Journal of forecasting 42 (2023) 6, pp. 1519-1535
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014338949
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Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model
Cuzan, Alfred G. - 2012
In this paper, I summarize the Fiscal Model and use it to make a forecast of President Obama's share of the two party …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102752
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Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election With the Fiscal Model
Cuzan, Alfred G. - 2012
The fiscal model of presidential elections is summarized and used to forecast President Obama's share of the two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109218
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Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US presidential elections 2016 and 2020 : an optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model
Easaw, Joshy Z.; Fang, Yongmei; Heravi, Saeed M. - 2021
interest in this study is the short- and long-term forecasting and, thus, we consider from the short forecast horizon of 1-day …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177191
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Regional heterogeneity and US presidential elections : real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation
Ahmed, Rashad; Pesaran, M. Hashem - In: International journal of forecasting 38 (2022) 2, pp. 662-687
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013348692